INTRO
A recent
issue in the news is the United States selling arms to Taiwan. These arms would
be used for Taiwan to defend itself against an attack by China, a nation that
Taiwan is technically a part of, and which China wants to have reunited with
it.
This paper
will look at the history of the tensions between China and Taiwan since 1949.
It will then make an overview of Realist theory, which will then be used to
analyze the situation and to predict future occurrences in this situation. The
prediction is that the situation will continue in its current form, that
neither side will take a drastic step in the struggle, because of the
consequences involved being too great.
HISTORY
Before, during,
and immediately after World War II, the Kuomintang (KMT) was the “ruling party”
in China, at that time under the leadership of Chiang Kai-shek. The quotes are
there because the KMT’s rule of China was never total. The KMT was the
government that accepted the Japanese surrender in 1945 though, and it enjoyed
support from the United States, the Soviet Union, and others. But even with
support like that, the KMT was soundly defeated in the ensuing civil war with
the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).[1]
As defeat
loomed, Taiwan became the place for the KMT to bolt to. Many people from the
mainland had moved to Taiwan, and the KMT had pretty much taken over the
government and tightened its grip on the island.[2]
As more cities in mainland China fell to the CCP, the KMT moved first its
headquarters to Taipei (August 1948), then its treasures, then its capital
(December 8, 1949).[3]
Meanwhile,
Mao Zedong declared the establishment of the People’s Republic of China on
October 1, 1949 at the gate of the Forbidden City, in Peking.[4]
Taiwan and
the KMT had been largely abandoned by both the United States and the Soviet
Union up until the onset of the Korean War in 1950. The Soviet Union began to
back the CCP after it became obvious that they were going to win, and the US
got annoyed with the KMT’s inability to win the civil war even with all the
help they had received.[5]
But with the onset of the Korean War, the perception of a communist threat in
Asia became prominent, and the US supporting South Korea made it hard to not
support another Asian nation that had been an old American ally and was likely
to be overrun by the Communists.[6]
The US
backing Taiwan did not sit well in Peking, and they wanted to use the Cairo
Declaration (that Taiwan would be part of KMT-ruled China[7])
to get Taiwan because they felt the US wanted to use Taiwan as a springboard
for future action against China; this has been a central part of the CCP’s
creed ever since.[8]
Since then,
China and Taiwan have been in basically hostile states of limbo, with China
claiming Taiwan as another Chinese province and Taiwan generally wanting to not
be ruled under China’s Communist government, and lately, wanting independence.[9]
Recently,
Taiwan entered into an agreement with the US to buy some ships, submarines and military
aircraft.[10] Taiwan
feels that it needs the arms to defend itself from China, who has set up 50
additional missiles per year along the Taiwan Strait, and that the US selling
arms is a commitment to defense from a Chinese attack.[11]
China considers Taiwan to be Chinese territory, and feels the missile buildup
is necessary to keep Taiwan from declaring independence.[12]
GOALS
The three
main actors in this issue are China, Taiwan, and the United States. Each
individual actor has its own set of goals in this dispute. As stated above, the
goal of China is reunification with Taiwan. The interest of Taiwan is to be
free of Communist Chinese rule. The goal of the US is multifaceted: to keep
good relations with an old ally with economic benefits for the US, and to
normalize relations with China, which had emerged as a major power.[13]
THEORY
The theory
that best fits and will be used to analyze the situation between China and
Taiwan, which involves the US as well, will be Realism.
The key
points of realism are as follows[14]:
APPLYING THE THEORY TO THE ISSUE
A quick look will show that Realism is in fact the proper
theory. The first point Realism makes is that the key actors are states, and in
this situation the key actors mentioned above are all states; there aren’t any
individuals or non-governmental organizations involved directly.
The theory also states that the state seeks power, is a
unitary actor and has a national interest. China seeks power, by wanting to
control Taiwan, which it doesn’t now. China is also a unitary actor, there
hasn’t been any opposition from within China’s borders unless you count Taiwan
as such. Thirdly, China has a national interest of controlling Taiwan.
Taiwan seeks power as well, by being able to make its own
decisions and rule itself, without being subordinate to China. It hasn’t always
been as unitary of an actor though, and its stance has changed over the years
towards what exactly it wants. The old government, under the KMT, also wanted a
“one China” policy, but with the KMT ruling China and not the CCP.[15]
The new government which has gained power takes more of a pro-independence
approach, and in fact, former Taiwanese president Lee Teng-hui said Taiwan and
China has a “state-to-state” relationship (which angered China).[16]
Its national interest is in line with its seeking of power, although it doesn’t
wish to govern itself and another country too in the way China does.
As the United States goes, the only part of the theory that
deeply applies is the part about national interest. The US has a national
interest for each nation. Trade is huge. For example, the arms sales to Taiwan
could mean years of increased jobs at the plant that builds the planes Taiwan
will be buying, among other jobs created.[17]
China is also a large trade partner with the US. Therefore, the US has a
national economic interest that both Taiwan and China continue to exist.
CONCLUSION
Realism assumes actors are rational. They will weigh the
advantages and disadvantages of the consequences, good and bad, of the actions
which they choose to take in their struggle for power.[18]
As such, the Realism theory predicts that the standoff will
continue basically as-is. China would consider the fact that Taiwan has the
backing of the US should an attack occur, and decide not to risk the wrath of
the US. In addition, China’s military technology is wanting.[19]
Taiwan will consider that China is a formidable enemy, if for no other reason
than sheer numbers, and that the US has only pledged its support for defense,
not for offense, and therefore Taiwan will not launch an attack against
mainland China. Also, the US would want it to stay that way. Letting Taiwan
slip to China would deeply impact trade with Taiwan, as well as increase the
amount of power and the amount of industrial resources China has. If the US
backs Taiwan in an offensive strike, or in provoking Beijing by declaring
independence, it could also have some negative results for the US. In any case,
Beijing would be very angry at the US. Also, there is the potential that Taiwan
would be soundly defeated and would be annexed into China. That would mean the
worst of both worlds for the US; Taiwan would be gone, impacting trade and
giving China more power, and Beijing would be mad and would likely impose some
type of sanctions.
The theory also predicts that no side will back down,
because each would be sacrificing its national interest.
I agree with the prediction the theory makes. I don’t see
China backing down from its position anytime soon, especially with its desire
to be a superpower just like the US. In addition, the feeling that Taiwan
belongs to it is fairly deeply rooted now. I also don’t see Taiwan backing
down, because that would be surrendering to China and having to submit to the
Communist rule that it has tried to avoid for the last 50 years. The US won’t
pull out of this, because Taiwan is too dependent on the might of the US to be
able to stand up to China alone, and that means Taiwan and the trade that goes
with it goes out the window.
I also do not see the two countries directly involved (the
US is involved, but in support of one nation while trying to keep things civil
with the other nation, it’s not trying to conquer or trying to avoid being
conquered) launching an attack. As stated above, Taiwan only has US support for
defense, not offense. Also, China won’t launch an attack for the reason stated
above, that the might of the US is too great, and with a president in the White
House that is taking a hard line on China, the US is more likely to step in and
do something about it. The Chinese might engage in some saber-rattling (like
the testing of missiles 130km east of Taiwan in 1996), but it won’t actually do
any more than flex its muscles to intimidate Taiwan. The US is also not likely
to launch an attack, because it has no reason to and it’s promised only to use
force if Taiwan is acted upon.
So, in closing, the theory predicts (and I agree) that the
situation will stay as it is for a long while, that no actor will back down but
no actor will launch a military offensive.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
“China Protests US Arms Offer to
Taiwan.” Los Angeles Times, 25 April 2001, pt. A, pt. 1, p. 4.
“Foes Remain of Two Minds on ‘One
China.’” New York Times, 28 April 2001, sec. A, p. 8.
Lee, Lai To. The Reunification of
China: PRC-Taiwan Relations in Flux. New York: Praeger Publications, 1991.
Long, Simon. Taiwan: China’s Last
Frontier. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1991.
Mingst, Karen A. Essentials of
International Relations. New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1999.
“Quietly, Asia Lauds US Stance on
China—Asia Praises US On China.” Boston Globe, 5 May 2001, sec.
National/Foreign, p. A1.
“Taiwan Proposal Could Benefit
Lockheed Plant; Years Of Work Possible From P-3 Orion's Revival.” Atlanta
Journal and Constitution, 1 May 2001, sec. Business, p. 1E.
van Kemenade, Willem. China, Hong
Kong, Taiwan, Inc. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, Inc., 1997.
[1] Simon Long, Taiwan: China’s Last Frontier (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1991) pp. 33-34.
[2] Ibid., p. 54.
[3] Ibid., p. 59.
[4] Ibid.
[5] Ibid., pp. 110-114.
[6] Ibid., p. 115.
[7] Ibid., p. 110.
[8] Ibid., pp. 116-117.
[9] “Foes Remain of Two Minds on ‘One China,’” New York Times, 28 April 2001, sec. A, p. 8.
[10] “China Protests US Arms Offer to Taiwan,” Los Angeles Times, 25 April 2001, pt. A, pt. 1, p. 4.
[11] Ibid.
[12] Ibid.
[13] Lai To Lee, The Reunification of China: PRC-Taiwan Relations in Flux (New York: Praeger Publications, 1991) p. 60.
[14] Karen A. Mingst, Essentials of International Relations (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1999) pp. 70-79.
[15] Lee, p. 36.
[16] “Foes remain…”
[17] “Taiwan Proposal Could Benefit Lockheed Plant; Years Of Work Possible From P-3 Orion's Revival,” Atlanta Journal and Constitution, 1 May 2001, sec. Business, p. 1E.
[18] Mingst, p. 71.
[19] Willem van Kemenade, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Inc. (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, Inc., 1997) pp. 127-128.